A lot of our readers are wondering what is the chance to encounter a shiny Pokemon during the Community Day events. The chance is roughly 1 in every 25 spawns, or around 4%. The chance was observed to be the same during Pikachu and Dratini Community day events.
Full credits for these numbers go to redditor /u/chflorian who collected data from local and online groups and calculated the following numbers for the Dratini event (sample size included 186k recorded catches):
- average amount of catches: 134
- average amount of shinies: 5
- total amount of recorded catches: 186252
- total amount of recorded shinies: 7526
- average shiny rate:
- 5 / 134 = 3.73%
- 7526 / 186252 = 4.04%
/u/Dozo1971 (another reddit user) has confirmed these numbers in his local community by running a survey with 56 participants and observing the same results.
Be aware that these odds and numbers do not guarantee that you will encounter a shiny Community Day Pokemon every 25 encounters. These numbers illustrate an average chance to encounter it, rather than explaining phenomena like back to back shiny or long streaks of non-shiny encounters.